The Legality Of Tariffs Decision To Impact Shipping

The Legality Of Tariffs Decision To Impact Shipping

A U.S. court has ruled that most of Trump’s tariffs are illegal, undercutting the president’s use of the levies as a key international economic policy tool.

These tariffs – enacted using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) – are currently allowed to remain in place until the 14th of October, to give the Trump administration a chance to file an appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court.

The impact of the final legal decision has the potential to significantly impact container shipping demand.

If these tariffs are found to be illegal, the outcome would be positive for container shipping demand. Even if Trump reimposed tariffs via alternate means, U.S. importers will be able to obtain refunds of IEEPA tariffs already paid, a positive for bottom lines and liquidity, supporting future import volumes and container shipping demand. Current estimates indicate that if the Supreme Court rules against IEEPA tariffs in early 2026, the aggregate refund will exceed $100bn.

If they are upheld as legal, this will have a negative impact on US consumer demand and container shipping demand. It would also compel any businesses that hadn’t yet incorporated long-term levies into their business models to finally do so, another negative for shipping demand.

Trump said the U.S. may have to “unwind” existing trade deals, including with the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, if the Supreme Court doesn’t uphold the tariffs. We will keep you updated of further developments via our LinkedIn page.

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