India’s Exports To Feel Brunt Of New Tariffs

India’s Exports To Feel Brunt Of New Tariffs

The impact of the 50% tariff on all Indian products, as announced by the U.S., has the potential to substantially impact India’s economy (if it remains unchanged by Trump and is upheld by the Supreme Court).

The U.S. is India’s largest export market, accounting for 18% of exports and 2.2% of GDP. It was projected that a 25% tariff could reduce GDP by 0.2-0.4%, potentially pulling growth below 6% this year, therefore the higher tariff rate of 50% would be expected to magnify this impact.

Sectors that will bear the brunt of the impact include textiles (worth US$10.3 billion in U.S. exports in 2024), metals and metal products (worth US$5.2 billion in US exports 2024), auto and auto parts (worth US$2.6 billion in U.S. exports in 2024), as well as fishery and seafood exports (worth US$1.9 billion in U.S. exports in 2024).

In addition, India’s two primary container gateways – Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT) and Mundra – which handle over 60% of the country’s throughput and serve numerous industrial sectors supplying the U.S. market – will be significantly affected if the tariffs remain in place.

Whilst India will focus on alternate markets, it will take time to create these strong trade relationships to soften the tariff blow. To date, we’ve seen this commence through India’s evolving relations with Russia and China, as well as the recently signed Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the UK.

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