16 Dec China Trade Imbalance Impacting Overall Shipping Landscape
The increasing imbalance between the volume of China’s exports and imports is beginning to impact functional container ship tonnage, requiring more container equipment and handling, as the ratio of exports to imports over the last two years has steadily risen from 3.12 to 3.29.
With China expanding their export markets into regions such as Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and Europe, export volumes over the first nine months of 2025 have increased 20% year over year.
Manufacturers in China have been able to find new export markets outside of the United States since the tariff announcements in April, and have kept these markets growing even as domestic consumption lags.
This imbalance is a prime example of how overall functional ocean capacity is impacted by elements external to the control of shipping organisations. These elements, which also include port congestion, are going to become increasingly important when overcapacity hits the market next year as they will amplify the industry downcycle.
According to BIMCO, global volume demand is forecast to expand 2.5% to 3.5% next year, compared with the 4.5% to 5.5% expected growth in 2025, whilst global container capacity will be up 7.3% by the end of this year compared with 2024 and will grow 3.1% year over year in 2026, resulting in the anticipated overcapacity.
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